Today we released our fifth annual "Luxury Homes Days On Market Index". The findings show that while the U.S. real estate market remains strong overall, in a shifting luxury real estate market, homes are taking longer to sell—and when they do, the sale price tends to be well below the original ask.
The global pandemic had a profound impact on the real estate market in 2020. The fifth edition of the our Luxury Homes Index analyzes the 10 highest property sales in 56 top luxury markets across the United States to determine the impact that the number of days a high-end property is on the market has on its final sale price. In this edition, our research shows that while the US real estate market remains strong, the luxury sector is seeing increased Days On Market, and seller and buyer trends have shifted in the past year likely due to new location and property priorities inspired by COVID-19.
Sixty-seven percent of the luxury properties analyzed that sold in 2020 took longer than 180 days to sell, achieving less than 81% of ask, on average. Comparatively, the 33% that sold in less than 180 days achieved over 94% of their original list price. The average Days On Market for the 56 markets evaluated in 2020 was 497 days, an 11% increase from the 451 days in 2019. This shows an overall slowdown in luxury real estate since the onset of COVID-19 and contributes to significant drops in average list price in markets like the Hamptons and Beverly Hills, California.
The report reviews the top sales from 2015 to 2020 across 56 of the hottest luxury real estate markets. We examined the 10 most expensive homes sold in each market to chart the overall health of the luxury tier. The research, drawn from MLS and public property record data, demonstrates that in every economic condition, Days On Market are an important consideration for luxury home sellers.
"Every day a home sits on the market, it depreciates in value. For five years, our research continues to show that the largest factor in determining the price that a luxury property will ultimately sell for is the number of days that it has been on the market,” stated CEO Laura Brady. “We continue to find that properties either sell quickly for close to their initial asking price, or they linger on the market and sell for a fraction.”
Days On Market:
In 2020, the luxury market continued to be highly segmented. As inventory increased in many areas, days on market rose and prices dropped.
Comparing the 2020 data to the 57 markets featured in last year's report, overall, the total Days On Market increased 11%, from 451 in 2019 to 497 days in 2020.
Two-thirds of the top sales evaluated in 2020 were on the market for more than 180 days. Only 33% sold under 180 days, with an average Days On Market of 80 days, on par with the last three consecutive years. By comparison, for the 67% listed for more than 180 days, average Days On Market jumped over 40%, to an average of 702 days total.
“Through this data, areas of strength and weakness within specific markets can be identified,” stated Chad Roffers, Chairman. “In general, markets that saw dramatic price increases also saw a similar increase in Days On Market as potential buyers waited for reductions. Our experience shows this strategy doesn’t work, as it undermines the ultimate sale price. Economic, political, and tax factors also influence how luxury markets function. Our platform allows buyers, sellers, and agents to interact directly with the market on a designated timeline not otherwise possible within the traditional luxury real estate sale model. That predictability is even more valuable in the current market trends.”
For the second consecutive year, the lowest average Days On Market were in Sonoma County, California at just 86 days. The market has continually seen a rapid decrease in Days On Market, dropping 89% over four years from its 811-day peak in 2016. Denver, Colorado also saw a dramatic turn in 2020. The market ranks the second lowest for Days On Market, with top sales taking an average of 119 days to sell. This is 77.2% less time than those in 2019 and is the market’s lowest average since 2017.
By contrast, the highest Days On Market were in Kauai, Hawaii and the Hamptons, New York at 1,081 and 887 days, respectively. At nearly three years to sell, this average total Days On Market in Kauai is the highest the market has seen in the past four consecutive years at an increase of 203% from just 357 days in 2017.
Westlake Village, California and Vail, Colorado saw the highest rises in Days On Market of all markets, at 253% and 131%, respectively.
The 10 highest Days On Market were in:
The 10 lowest Days On Market were in:
Sale Price:
The average sold price for these top 10 properties continues to increase slightly year over year, from $13,364,312 in 2019 to $15,145,856 in 2020. While prices at the top of the market increased in some locales, many markets saw either a flattening or a large drop in average sale prices.
The top sales in New York, New York achieved the highest average Sale Price of all 56 markets at $65,561,281—over four times more than the average of all markets and a 58% market increase since 2018—followed by Palm Beach, Florida at $48,294,758. By contrast, the lowest average Sale Prices achieved were in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania at $2,033,600, a drop of 55%, and Morristown/Essex, New Jersey at $2,530,000, a drop of 38% and the market’s lowest since in three consecutive years.
Holmby/Bel Air, California saw the largest drop of all markets, plummeting nearly 60% in 2020 from a peak in 2019, from $63,250,000 to $27,470,000. Similarly, Kona, Hawaii saw its lowest average since 2017, dropping nearly 36% in 2020, from $13,067,000 in 2019 to $8,400,191.
“While it also came with an increase in Days On Market, the higher prices achieved in 2020 in the high-end isn’t as much of a surprise, as the buyers of these properties also saw a 50% increase in their portfolios,” added Roffers. “My advice for luxury home buyers—if you’re looking to purchase a second home to use for immediate enjoyment, now is a good time to do so as a long term investment. Otherwise, you’re better off similarly putting your money in the market.”
The 10 highest Sale Prices were in:
The 10 lowest Sale prices were in:
Percent of Original List Price:
The average percent of Original List Price achieved for the 56 luxury U.S. markets evaluated in 2020 was 85.54%—on par with the 83.82% in 2019.
Of these, the 67% of properties that sold within 180 days achieved 94.06% of their Original List Price. By contrast, the 33% that took longer than 180 days to sell achieved just 80.6%.
“This 13-percent difference can be substantial when dealing with multi-million dollar properties and does not include carrying costs, property taxes, or other expenditures of both time and money,” added Roffers.
The lowest average percent of Original List Price achieved for top sales in 2020 were in the Hamptons, New York, at 69.95%, followed by Beverly Hills, California at 69.06%. The 13.92% drop is the market’s lowest average in the past six consecutive years. Broward County and Vero Beach, Florida fall not far behind—at 73% and 75%, respectively.
Conversely, properties in Nantucket, Massachusetts achieved over asking price and the highest percent of Original List Price, at 116.61%, followed by Vermont at 97.51%.
The 10 highest % of Original List Price achieved were in:
The 10 lowest % of Original List Price achieved were in:
“In every market, luxury properties face unique circumstances. There is limited liquidity for luxury, and properties in this category, particularly those that are highly distinctive, have a relatively small buyer pool often spread over a large geographic range. Not only does price have little bearing on demand, but buyers don’t typically all arrive at once,” stated Brady. “Days On Market is an important one as an indicator for gauging a market’s activity and can help agents and sellers anticipate the challenges they may encounter. Our unprecedented growth continues to be a sign that having a time-certain solution in the buying and selling of luxury real estate is imperative in today’s market."
To receive the complete Concierge Auctions "2021 Luxury Homes Index," call 212.984.3896 or visit LuxuryHomesIndex.com.
* Fewer than 10 sales were used for some markets because public data was incomplete. Total reflect 57 markets analyzed in 2018-2020; 40 in 2017; and 27 in 2015-2016.